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| Photo Credit: BYU Photo |
BYU opened their West Coast Conference slate with a dominating win over Loyola Marymount last night, getting the final and most crucial portion of their schedule underway with a bang. The Cougars have just 16 regular season games left and a hefty amount of work left to do to earn themselves an NCAA tournament bid.
As such, we decided this would be as a good a time as any to bring back one of my favorite Post-Jimmer features — the Three-Man Weave, in which three commentators from throughout Cougar Nation will offer their opinions and analysis on three BYU basketball-related issues for your reading pleasure. For today's installment, I am fortunate to be joined by Ben Wagner, sports director for BYU Radio and a Post-Jimmer contributor, and Scott Gower, whom you Twitter-inclined folks may know as @cougaracity.
Now, without further ado...
1. With BYU's season essentially halfway over now, what is your assessment of the current state of the team? Better than you expected? Worse? Any particular surprises or disappointments?
Ben Wagner, BYU Radio: With 14 games under their belt, I have to say that overall this BYU team has been a bit of a disappointment to me — I really expected the Cougars to win at least one from their crop of good non-conference games. Their inability to win a game in Brooklyn at the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic was a huge disappointment, but could have been salvaged with a result against either Iowa State or Baylor. As much as the team and BYU fans can try to spin those losses as learning experiences against tough road teams, the fact is neither Baylor nor Iowa State are world-beaters. Per CBSsports.com, Baylor is 35th in the nation in RPI while BYU is 37th. Even worse, Iowa State is currently 59th in the RPI.
Heading into the season, expectations were running high for Brandon Davies, and it is safe to say he has met those expectations. I predicted Davies to be the WCC Player of the Year, and at this point I think he's the favorite. He's currently averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. His shooting splits are even more impressive, averaging 57 percent from the field, 38 percent from three, and 70 percent from the free throw line.
Meanwhile, Tyler Haws has far exceeded even the most optimistic predictions. The returning missionary is putting up 21 points and 5 rebounds per game, while shooting 48 percent from the field, 42 percent from three, and 94 percent from the free throw line (first in the nation among players with more than 50 attempts). Haws can flat-out score the basketball, and looks on pace to finish his career as one of the best players in BYU history.
Perhaps the biggest surprise, however, has been the play of Josh Sharp. If I went back in time a year ago and told myself that Josh Sharp would provide the highlight dunk of BYU's year while providing solid defense, rebounding, and athleticism, I'd probably laugh and then try to close my own loop.
Scott Gower, @cougaracity: At this point, it would be hard for me to say BYU has been anything but worse than I expected. I think they're good, but they're just not anywhere near where I expected them to be. 10-4 isn't a bad record, but in the games against decent-to-good opponents, they didn't even seem to have a chance. Additionally, it's becoming more and more clear that Dave Rose is not set on a rotation, and with conference play starting, that's not a particularly great spot in which to find yourself.
It's hard to call Tyler Haws a surprise, because we saw what he was capable of during his freshman season. However, coming off a mission and playing the way he has? Outstanding. If asked before the season whether or not Tyler Haws would have any 40-plus point games, I'm guessing most of Cougar Nation would have emphatically responded "No!" But here we are.
It pains me to say it, but the biggest disappointment for me is Matt Carlino. I definitely would consider myself part of the "pro-Carlino" camp, but we're just not seeing it consistently. On one play, he'll make a pass that makes you think, "Wow! BYU hasn't had a guy who could make that pass in a long time." But occasionally, he'll do something that will make you think, "Wow. We've had too many players at BYU that make that pass." And that's not saying anything about his shooting struggles.
Steve Pierce, Post-Jimmer: If we're going to be honest with ourselves, I think everybody has been underwhelmed by this Cougar team thus far. They haven't been able to get a single marquee win for their tournament resume, and they have struggled mightily on the road, which does not bode well for conference play. It is certainly possible that fan expectations for this BYU squad were much too high to begin with — all the talk about their great "depth" should really have been about how, outside of their best two players, they're all equally average — and that we haven't really recovered from our Jimmer hangovers yet. Perhaps this is the new (and old) normal?
As far as surprises go, look no further than Tyler Haws. Everybody knew the kid could play. We saw that during his freshman season. But I don't think anybody expected him to come back from his mission and play this well right out of the gate. He has been a picture of offensive efficiency, never straining too hard or forcing poor shots. He has struggled a bit to get open without the ball from time to time, but he has made great strides in that area in recent games. His 42-point showing against Virginia Tech was magnificent in every way, and hopefully a harbinger of more good things to come. (Honorable mention? Josh Sharp, who has proved all of his critics wrong by hustling his rear end off on every single play and, as a result, become one of the most important players on this team.)
In terms of disappointments, I would have to give a big sigh to the collective team for their terrible three-point shooting. To be sure, BYU didn't exactly light the world on fire from deep last season, hitting just 35 percent, but things have gotten even worse this year. The Cougars are currently only converting on just 32 percent of those shots this season. Take out Tyler Haws, and that number drops even further. But the real problem is they're still attempting a staggering 19 threes per game. For a team that shoots this poorly from long-distance to be taking that many threes is not a recipe for offensive efficiency. After so much offseason talk about improved shooting, it has been disappointing to see things go the other direction.
2. What would you like to see change heading into conference play, if anything, to maximize this squad's ability to compete for a WCC championship?
Wagner: While the Cougars' two stars have met or exceeded expectations, their high production has been countered by the terrible performance of the other 10 players on the roster. In particular, Matt Carlino and Brock Zylstra have both experienced a precipitous drop-off in performance from a year ago. Carlino is in a massive sophomore slump, averaging 7 points points per game this season versus 12 a year ago. His three-point shooting is particularly troublesome, going from 33 percent last year to 22 percent so far this season. Zylstra has been generally terrible, averaging just 6 points per game (down from 8 a year ago) and has slowly seen his minutes decrease as he increasingly brings nothing to the table.
The question heading into conference play remains the rest of the BYU team not named Haws or Davies. Those two will get their points, but without a consistent third scorer BYU won't be able to contend for a WCC championship. Ultimately, that player needs to be Matt Carlino. If he could just average 10 points a game during conference play, BYU would be a much more dangerous squad.
Gower: I'd like to see less of Brock Zylstra. I like Brock, and he's had his moments at BYU, and he's not terrible, but he's playing considerably worse than last year. Players like Raul Delgado, Cory Calvert and Anson Winder (if healthy) are going to need more minutes in conference play, and Zylstra is taking playing time away from all of those guys each time he steps on the floor. BYU needs to find a third scorer, and Zylstra is not it.
Pierce: BYU obviously needs to find a third scorer. Brock Zylstra hasn't been able to score in the same way he did last season. Though his season shooting percentages are decent (by BYU standards), he has been in an awful funk of late. It's like his confidence has been completely sapped. In the past 7 games, Zylstra has shot an anemic 27 percent from the field overall, including a miserable 13 percent from beyond the arc. On the contrary, Matt Carlino, the other possible candidate for third banana, has quietly begun putting together a nice run of games in that same period. In his last 7 outings, Carlino has shot 52 percent from the field and a respectable 37 percent from deep, a far cry from his horrific start to the season.
Time is getting short, and Rose needs to fully commit to Carlino. For all his imperfections, he is the best hope the Cougars have at finding a consistent third scoring option. But that means he needs to be allowed to shoot — Rose can't pull him if he takes a bad shot or two. Shooters have to be allowed some space to develop the necessary confidence to fill that role, even if there is a bad game mixed in every now and then — or in my father's words, "Shooters gotta shoot." This doesn't mean that Carlino should stop looking to create for his teammates. He absolutely needs to get looks for Davies and Haws. But after those options are expended, he needs to look for himself. It's kind of the Cougars' only hope at this point. They can only go as far as Carlino takes them.
3. Looking at the remaining schedule, what do you think BYU needs to do to be in reasonably good shape for an at-large tournament bid? Do you see them achieving that?
Wagner: Without a quality non-conference win on their NCAA tournament resume, the Cougars need to find those types of wins in conference play. They'll have at least two opportunities against Gonzaga, currently ranked 10th in the nation. But frankly, I've seen nothing from BYU this year to make me think they can beat Gonzaga, even at the Marriott Center. As long as BYU players not named Tyler Haws continue to shoot 29 percent from three, and no one else besides Haws and Davies averages more than 7 points a game, BYU isn't beating Gonzaga.
Their best chance then of making the NCAA tournament is to finish second in the WCC behind Gonzaga and make it to the WCC title game, hoping that the NCAA selection committee believes that the WCC is a two-bid league regardless. Finishing second in the WCC will likely mean running the table in conference play outside of the two Gonzaga games. With the Cougars currently shooting 39 percent from the field on the road this season (including a pathetic 21 percent from three), winning all their road games in the WCC seems highly unlikely.
At this point, BYU faces an uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament, and right now they find themselves on the outside looking in. If a consistent third scorer can emerge, and BYU's three-point shooting — particularly on the road — improves, the Cougars could still make the Big Dance in March via a variety of scenarios. But if the Cougars find themselves in third or even fourth place in the WCC, without a quality win on their resume, they'll be playing in the NIT come March.
Gower: Santa Clara's improvement could be very good/very bad for BYU. The Broncos make BYU's schedule stronger, but they also make two more games on the Cougars' schedule less obviously winnable than they were a few months ago. I'm not convinced Santa Clara is as good as its record shows. I think if BYU can go 3-3 against Gonzaga, St. Mary's and Santa Clara, it'll make the tourney, and I think that happens. The Cougars can't afford to lose any more than three more games this year.
Pierce: To have a realistic shot of making the tournament as an at-large, BYU needs to get some marquee wins. The opportunities are limited the rest of the way, but they are there. Taking one of two against Gonzaga would be huge, but probably unlikely at this point. In the event that doesn't happen, the Cougars will have to beat Saint Mary's at least once, beat Santa Clara twice, and beat Utah State, while avoiding any unexpected losses and making a deep WCC tournament run in order to feel OK about their position.
All of that is certainly possible, but it is a difficult task. It means showing up every single night during a grueling conference schedule. It means no nights off and no excuses. If I were a betting man, I don't know that I would wager on the Cougars to get it done — it just requires too much consistency from a team that hasn't shown much of that yet this season. Then again, given their recent streak of strong play, perhaps this squad is finally turning the corner at just the right time to make a serious run at the Big Dance. Only time will tell.
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