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| Photo Credit: BYU Photo |
NATE AUSTIN, PF
2011-2012 Stats:
4.1 PPG (54.2% FG, 30.4% 3PT, 51.3% FT)
3.8 RPG, 0.5 APG, 0.3 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 0.6 TO
Nate Austin is a bit of an enigma. His stats from his freshman year aren't off the charts in any one category, but he is universally beloved by BYU fans — including this writer — and seen as the most worthy long-term successor to the departed Noah Hartsock's spot in the starting lineup. Long after Brandon Davies has passed on to better things, we expect Nate to be holding it down in the painted area. And while his freshman production may not appear all that impressive on its face, a deeper look reveals much more.
You see, Austin played only a paltry 13 minutes a game behind Hartsock last year. Not bad for a freshman, sure, but also not a ton of playing time by any stretch of the imagination. With Noah now gone, Nate projects to receive a much larger share of the minutes at the power forward position, which means his modest 2011-2012 averages of 4.1 points and 3.8 rebounds are likely to grow.
Austin's "Per 40" stats — an extrapolation of a player's stats to reflect what they would be if he played a full 40-minute game, thus allowing observers to better compare the production and efficiency of players who receive varying amount of playing time — tell the story. If he had been afforded those increased minutes a season ago, the numbers say Nate's averages would have jumped to 13 points and 12 rebounds per game, with an effective field goal percentage of 57.4. Not bad at all.
These kinds of numbers are what make Cougar fans so excited about Austin. While it may not have shown up in the box score last year, his unique brand of non-stop energy and a surprisingly refined spot-up game were producing efficient offensive outcomes, but he simply wasn't receiving much playing time to show them off. As he receives more minutes this season, we should see his actual production rise to more or less reflect his "Per 40" stats from a season ago. Factor in that those numbers are likely to improve even more as Nate more fully fleshes out his game and you have even more cause for excitement.
However, this enthusiasm comes with one big caveat: In order to realize this potential production, Austin actually has to play in the games. Or, put more accurately, he has to stay out of foul trouble. As a freshman, Austin fouled at an astoundingly high rate (8 fouls per 40 minutes) that would have made it impossible for Rose to keep him on the floor, even if he'd wanted or needed to. With many more minutes potentially available to him as a sophomore and the coaching staff standing ready to give him every opportunity to succeed, Nate has to play smart on defense and keep himself on the floor. Otherwise, all the hustle and offensive efficiency in the world won't do him — or the team — any good.
Bottom line? If Austin keeps hacking opponents to death faster than a horror movie villain, we'll be seeing lots of Josh Sharp and Agustin Ambrosino in the coming months. But if he can harness his boundless energy and channel it into making intelligent defensive decisions, BYU fans could have a double-double monster with a real future on their hands.
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