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| Photo Credit: BYU Photo |
MATT CARLINO, PG
2011-2012 Stats:
12.2 PPG (40.1% FG, 33.1% 3PT, 75.9% FT)
3.0 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 3.0 TO
Somewhere in the back half of the 2011-2012 season, Matt Carlino became BYU's most polarizing player. It was a swift and jarring shift. Just months earlier, after he torched nationally ranked Baylor with shot after shot in his debut game, Cougar fans had been singing his praises, predicting he would be "the next Jimmer." By the time March rolled around, a hefty portion of the fan base was screaming for Carlino to be benched, calling for coach Dave Rose to give the reins to back-up Craig Cusick. It was a complete about-face — and it all happened in just over two months. So, what happened exactly?
The story in one chart:
In short, Matt hit a cold streak — and a pretty long one at that. Up until late January, Carlino was hitting threes at a nearly 45 percent clip, good enough to place him among some of the game's elite shooters. And then, as the chart shows, everything fell apart. He ended up shooting just 33 percent from deep on the season, a mediocre number for a player billed as a top-flight perimeter scorer. This sudden decrease in production — even as his usage rate grew demonstrably — killed a lot of fans' nascent crushes on the freshman guard.
It is possible that the poor shooting could have been forgiven if it weren't for the turnovers. Not only could Carlino not throw the ball in the ocean down the stretch, but he also seemed to develop a knack for making bad decisions at the worst possible times. He turned the ball over five times in each of the Cougars' last three games (including two in the NCAA tournament), and racked up a staggering nine turnovers in a WCC tournament tilt against lowly San Diego.
While the heat directed at Carlino's decision-making wasn't entirely fair (there were several games where he took care of the ball splendidly, and he was still a true freshman thrust into the spotlight after all), the knock stuck and the boobirds began to surface. Every time he took a shot and missed, fans hissed at their TV sets, shouting for him to stop shooting or get out of the game. The Twitter and CougarBoard hoards grew increasingly agitated with each turnover. I'm sure this experience didn't have a particularly positive impact on the young man's confidence, thus begetting even shakier performances as the season progressed. The whole process was a veritably Westbrook-ian self-fulfilling prophecy.
But this is a different season. BYU coaches have been consistently singing Carlino's praises thus far, raving about his bulked-up frame and improved decision-making skills. Rose has said he believes he is now ready to fill a more traditional point guard role, leaving behind his days as a ball-dominant scoring guard. Only time will tell whether or not this holds true — the jury is still out after two slightly uneven exhibition games, but the verdict will almost certainly turn on whether Matt can turn his two biggest weaknesses of a year ago into strengths.
While he may not be asked to carry as much of the offensive load in his sophomore campaign, Carlino has to be able to shoot the ball better. On a team that struggled from distance last year, he needs to keep defenses honest with his shot, which will further open up opportunities for him to set up his teammates. But if teams feel like they can simply sag off and let him shoot, that could limit his ability to function as a playmaker and marginalize him within BYU's offensive structure.
Furthermore, if Rose and company are serious about Matt becoming a more traditional point guard, he has to control his turnovers. To be sure, nobody is perfect. Mistakes happen. But with a year of experience now under his belt, the Cougar faithful should expect to see marked improvement in ball security from their starting point guard. If Carlino can't cut out some of the sloppiness, it could be a long year for all involved. If he can, then the team could be poised to reach another level in offensive efficiency.
Early reports from those in the know point to the latter, but we won't know for sure until we're at least a few games down the line.
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