EnergySolutions Arena
Salt Lake City, Utah
Time: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. MST
TV: BYUtv
What To Watch For:
Guarding The Three-Point Line. Let's get this out of the way up front: Montana can flat-out shoot the basketball. End of story. The Grizzlies are currently third in the nation in three-point percentage, converting 46.5 percent of their attempts as a team. That is staggeringly good — all of which poses a problem to be solved by BYU. The Cougars have obviously struggled to guard the three-point line this season, an issue that — as I pointed out here — largely stems from an inability to stop dribble penetration, causing defenders to have to rotate and shooters to be left open. If ever there were a game where strong closeouts and solid perimeter defense were especially important, it is this one. If BYU lets Montana's guards into the paint on a regular basis, the rest of the squad will likely be knocking down open looks from deep all night long. These are good shooters, and they will make shots, which means the Cougar guards absolutely have to move their feet and stay in front of their respective men on defense. Perhaps this is the time to finally bump up Anson Winder's playing time.
Carlino's Minutes. It's no secret that I am a Matt Carlino apologist. I think he is an exceptionally promising young player who often gets a raw deal from a reactionary fan base. But at the same time, I can't deny that he struggled mightily in Brooklyn. He was terrible in every facet of the game. His shooting has been just south of anemic this entire season. There's no way around that. However, he has also had many games where he played great, despite his scoring woes. Outside of the Brooklyn debacle, Carlino has shown an ability to run the offense, set up his teammates, and be more of a traditional point guard than he has been in the past. Yesterday, Rose indicated that he wanted Matt to continue coming off the bench in order to help him get a better sense of the pace of the game early on. I am fine with this move — if he is still afforded the minutes he deserves. I like Craig Cusick, and I see the argument for starting him. But if Carlino is going to come off the bench, he needs to continue to get starter's minutes when he is playing well. For example, he played beautifully against Cal State Northridge, scoring 8 points and racking up 6 assists to only one turnover — but he only got 20 minutes. If Rose is serious about Carlino's play being essential to this team's success, he has to get more time than that when he's clicking. That doesn't mean you have to start him. I'm fine with him coming off the bench to get him in the flow of the game. But when he does come in and play well, he needs to get big minutes. The team is better off with a good Matt Carlino on the floor. Just ask Dave Rose.
Winning The Big(gish) One. OK, so admittedly Montana isn't Indiana or Duke. They're not even Florida State or Notre Dame. But they are still a good team. The Grizzlies have won 21 games in each of the last three seasons and qualified for two of the last three NCAA tournaments. They figure to be similarly well positioned this year. If BYU is going to compete for an at-large bid, they will need to have "marquee" wins on their resume. Seeing as they already flubbed the Florida State and Notre Dame opportunities, this is the next option. It's not quite as sexy, but a win over a solid Montana team in a neutral environment should play relatively well with the committee come March. It certainly won't be enough on its own — the Cougars are going to have to beat much better teams — but it is a start, and they has to start somewhere. Don't let the small conference affiliation fool you. This would be a good win for BYU, and one they will have to play well to get.
This should be a challenging contest for Rose's squad, but one they should ultimately prevail in. Montana will be without their best player, Will Cherry, so that should help BYU slow down the Grizzlies' attack. However, the story remains the same: If the Cougars can't defend and string together consecutive stops, they are unlikely to win this game or any future game against a serious opponent. It doesn't matter how much they score, BYU has to figure out a way to get it done on defense. Tonight should tell us a little more about how close they are to accomplishing that.
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